← Return to Archive
Notes From the Severed Floor /
001
Document No.
NFSF-001
Filed
March 10, 2026
Author
K. Dabir (Outtie)
Department
Paid Media
Read Time
4 minutes
Classification
Opinion
Notes /
001
Paid Media
Your ROAS Is Lying to You and You're Celebrating It
There is a number that lives on every marketing dashboard. It sits in agreen box or a green arrow pointing up and it makes everyone feel safe. Thatnumber is ROAS. And in most organizations, it is quietly destroying any chance ofreal growth because the people reading it don't understand what it actuallymeasures.
Let me be specific. ROAS tells you how much revenue came back per dollarspent. That sounds useful. It sounds like the one number you need. But here is theproblem: it rewards you for playing small. It rewards you for only targeting thepeople who were already going to buy. It rewards you for running retargetingcampaigns to your existing customers and calling it performance marketing.
A 10x ROAS on a $500 campaign did not grow your business. It made aspreadsheet look good in a meeting.
I have sat in rooms where leadership celebrated a 12x ROAS while net newcustomer acquisition was declining quarter over quarter. Nobody asked the hardquestion because the number was green and going up. The dashboard said wewere winning. The bank account said otherwise.
What Actually Matters
The brands that grow are not the ones obsessing over ROAS in isolation.They look at the full picture. They track CAC against LTV. They measureincrementality. They ask the uncomfortable question: would this sale havehappened without this ad?
If your media strategy is 70% retargeting and your ROAS is "incredible,"you are spending money to take credit for revenue that was already coming. Thatis not a strategy. That is an attribution scheme.
The shift is simple but uncomfortable: move from "what did my ads claim"to "what did my ads actually cause." This requires new measurement frameworks,some humility, and leadership that is willing to watch ROAS dip temporarily whileactual business growth climbs.
The Fix Is Not Complicated
Rebalance your media mix. Put real budget behind prospecting. Measureblended CAC across the full funnel, not per-channel vanity metrics. Runincrementality tests. Track new customer percentage as a primary KPI, not afootnote.
And the next time someone puts a 10x ROAS slide in a deck, ask them onequestion: how many of those customers were new?
If they don't know the answer, you have a dashboard problem. If they doknow and it's low, you have a strategy problem. Both are fixable. But only if youstop celebrating the lie first.
Next in Archive